Share price of PKO Bank Polski SA
PKO Bank Polski SA share price and turnover in the period 31.12.2009-30.12.2014
Change of PKO Bank Polski SA share price compared to WIG 20 and WIG Banks indices in the period 01.01.2010-30.12.2014 (31.12.2009=100%)
- the price of PKO Bank Polski SA shares decreased by 9.3% (–PLN 3.66) from PLN 39.42 at the end of 2013 to PLN 35.76 at the end of 2014, and the drop of share price took place in the fourth quarter (-9.8%, i.e. PLN –3.90 q/q),
- the average price of the Bank’s shares amounted to PLN 39.37 per share and was higher by 7.6% (PLN +2.78) than in 2013,
- the share price fluctuated in the range from PLN 44.15 (28.02.2014) to PLN 35.20 (29.12.2014),
- the daily average volume of trading in the Bank’s shares amounted to 2 952 thousand of shares while the lowest level (721 thousand of shares) was recorded on 26 May 2014 and the highest (16 886 thousand of shares) on 10 January 2014.
In 2014, share prices on the WSE changed slightly throughout the year (an increase in the WIG index of 0.3% y/y), however, they fluctuated considerably during the year, especially in the second half of the year (from +5.7% in the third quarter to -6.3% in the fourth quarter), which was due to both external and internal factors.
Among the external factors, the escalation of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict had the greatest effect as it triggered off an entire avalanche of events, including the imposition of sanctions by the USA and the EU and countersanctions by Russia (and, in consequence, a drop in Polish export to Russia), as well as a slump in oil prices. It resulted in a rapid economic slump in Russia which culminated in the so-called ’black Tuesday‘, 16 December 2014, when the Ruble exchange rates plummeted and panic selling occurred on the Moscow Stock Exchange. These events affected investors’ behaviour due to the increase in the geopolitical risk in Central and Eastern Europe.
Among the internal factors, in 2014 share prices were mainly affected by the reform of the Open Pension Funds (OFE), serious players on the WSE, which put them under an obligation to transfer more than a half of their funds (the so-called bond portion) to the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) in February 2014, introduced the freedom of choice in transferring pension contributions to the OFE or ZUS, a reduction in management fees, and the entry into force of the so-called ’safety zipper‘ in November 2014, according to which 10 years before reaching the retirement age the retirement savings put away by Poles in the OFE will be transferred to their respective accounts in ZUS. These changes forced the OFE to restructure their stock portfolios, including liquidating some of them, and diminished the OFE’s investment potential on the WSE.
In 2014, the prices of banks’ shares were also adversely affected by a cut in interest rates by the Monetary Policy Council, deflation, and regulatory factors, i.e. a reduction in the interchange fee in 2014, and yet another reduction in the said fee in 2015, as well as a significant increase in fees payable to the Bank Guarantee Fund (BGF). All of these elements contributed to a reduction in banks’ forecasted profits for the years 2015–2016 and, consequently, a reduction in target prices.
Share prices of PKO Bank Polski SA and capitalisation of competitors
Change of PKO Bank Polski SA share price compared to share prices of its competitors in the period 01.01.2010-30.12.2014 (31.12.2009=100%)
Capitalisation (as at the end of the period, PLN billion)